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Sunday, March 29, 2015

The index of leading economic indicators Take HUGE DIP

The composite index – an average of the indices for production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory – dropped from +3 in January and +1 in February to -4 in March. This ugly trend looks like this:

 Definition: The index of leading economic indicators (LEI) is intended to predict future economic activity. Typically, three consecutive monthly LEI changes in the same direction suggest a turning point in the economy. For example, consecutive negative readings would indicate a possible recession.

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